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ROMNEY VS. OBAMA: Here's Who Wall Street Thinks Is Better For Stocks

Romney Obama Debate

Who's better for stocks: Romney or Obama?

Here's Wall Street's answer from SocGen's Kit Juckes:

Good Morning. Bond and equity folks, at least, have made up their minds how to read the US election. Romney cuts taxes and spending and eventually replaces Bernanke with someone less dovish. This helps stocks, is bad for bonds; Obama raises taxes and healthcare, bad for stocks and therefore good for bonds.

And here's Wall Street's answer from Citi's Steven Englander:

Romney win is really not priced in. In the first instance we think the reaction will be concern that he will tighten on the macro side prematurely and lead to a broad sell-off in equities and fixed income, and buying of USD, but we think he will quickly back-off from the Ultra-view of where policy is headed.

Glad that's cleared up.

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SAUT: Housing Market Stocks Are Way Up, But The Long-Term Bullish Theme Is Intact

Raymond James' Jeff Saut's latest note discusses passing of the torch economic torc as manufacturing is giving way to housing (via Market Folly).

...the vigor of [exports and manufacturing] sectors has been waning. Meanwhile, the housing market has been picking up noticeably. Indeed, residential construction rose more than 14% recently, contributing 0.33 percentage points to GDP. Additionally, home prices are rising, which not only drives expenditures for equipping a new home but also contributes mightily to consumers’ wealth effect.

That the housing rebound is real was reflected in Q3 consumption spending, which expanded by 2 percent, he writes.

Ladies and gentlemen, a resurgence in housing will help a lot with the employment numbers, not to mention what the rebuilding will do in the wake of the Hurricane Sandy tragedy. To be sure, our real estate analysts think the housing recovery is for real and I agree. I also believe that manufacturing and exports will regain strength once the Presidential election and “fiscal cliff” situations are resolved.

Here's the graph he says supports the point:

Saut Raymond James

The recent decline in manufacturing is fairly sharp.

But so is housing's acceleration.

"Clearly, housing is recovering, as reflected by the huge gains in the homebuilding stocks this year," he notes. "That stock strength caused our fundamental housing analysts to downgrade most of the companies in their research universe due to their short-term price performance.

"Still, housing looks to be an undiminished investment theme over the long run."

SEE ALSO: Why Canada Will Not Experience An American-Style Housing Crash >

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Barclays Is Cutting Senior Banker Pay To 2009 Rates

Barclays

A less-than-thrilling third quarter earnings report means more salary slashing at Barlcays bank, according to eFinancial Careers.

Revenue was up 17% for the year, but the cost-to-income ratio fell below its 65% target to 64%. 

From eFinancial Careers:

Antony Jenkins, the bank’s new chief executive, said the aim was to continue to drive this ratio down while “always having one eye on being competitive”. Evidence of this is already starting to emerge, with the bank expected to cut senior bankers’ salaries by 30-40% by reversing pay increases implemented in 2009.


All that said, this is mostly a continuation of cuts at Barclays. Compensation accounts for 39% of revenue, down from 46% in 2011.

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