May 13
|18:46
When the going gets tough, the tough prefer paper money.
Gold is at its lowest level this year.
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May 13
|18:46
Greek bank stocks basically just behave like broader European markets, except in an extremely high-beta exaggerated manner.
Today Europe is getting smoked. So Greek bank stocks are getting killed.
Piraeus Bank is off 10.5%. National Bank of Greece is down 4%. Alpha Bank is down 5.7%.
Anyway, in addition to the political problems, the country is quickly running out of cash again.
Dow Jones FX Trader cites a news report saying that PM Papademos has warned that the country will face a cash flow situation in early June. That's even before a new election, if there is going to be one.
The country desperately needs outside cash. The impetus to form a government now, and not go through all the uncertainty again is massive.
For more on today's markets, see here >
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May 13
|18:46
Paul Krugman has a gloomy post this evening explaining how quickly the whole Euro could unravel.
It basically goes like this: Greece leaves the euro "very possibly next month." That would lead to a massive run on Italian and Spanish banks. There would be massive borrowing from the ECB to prevent a banking collapse. At which point Germany has to decide: Shoulder a major burden for the debts of Spain/Italy, etc., or let it all go.
He concludes: "And we’re talking about months, not years, for this to play out."
This might be extreme, but it might not be, but the key is that it would be a Greek departure that would set it all off. A country leaving the Eurozone would have terrible consequences, which everyone realizes, and actually that part of the reason that investors don't think it's going to happen -- because it would be so bad.
UPDATE: Krugman's post has caused a huge stir. It's gone trending in Spain >
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