Buisness Insider

What The Charts Tell Us About Stocks, Commodities, Emerging Markets And The Euro

File this with more qualitative thoughts and reasonings - a space we find ourselves frequenting lately as the US equity markets tempt fate for a third time.

With glass on our shoulders (see Meridian), we would be fooling ourselves if we did not consider scenarios A through G of what could happen should the other panes break with conviction - or if we should continue to focus on trends we have had the strongest reads on and ignore what they eventually should mean to the equity market cycle. Translation: (Insert overused quote on irrationality from Keynes here)

 

Spx 4


Granted, the intuitive trades for us have come from the liquidation corners of the market, namely, the precious metals complex - buttressed by the currency differentials between the US dollar and the euro - and what we have perceived to be a rather rational unwind in Apple. Of course, the follow up question, "Why is Apple unwinding so  diligently in a teflon tape?" likely resides closer to the same dog that's sniffing around and wagging the precious metals complex. Needless to say, we consider it anything but benign and scented for canine satisfaction

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Msworld%20x Us

From our perspective, world markets (ex-US) have been discretely rolling over throughout the first quarter. Europe, the BRICs, Canada - you name a major equity market and it very likely turned down before or during the month of March. Collectively, that balance is expressed in the MSWorld market chart shown below and to the left.  Perhaps we are colored by a certain bias, but see the dynamic primarily motivated by the US dollar's newfound dominance, namely, in the face of a wounded euro and Europe. Downstream of the euro's Q2 pivot (see Here) - world markets have yet to find the same traction the SPX has enjoyed. It isn't a causal coincidence to find the correlation, considering the burgeoning emergent economies so closely tied to the commodity cycle - and the fact that Europe is China's largest trade parter. 

From a comparative performance perspective, the current market landscape most resembles the topping process in 2000, where the negative divergence in performance between the SPX and the rest of the world grew steadily - until the US equity markets exhausted in late March. While some will certainly ignore this divergence or even sugar coat it as simply a safe-haven equity flight to the US; the simple truth is world growth - of which the financial markets are the the tip of the spear - are more entangled than ever. The US may outperform for a spell, but we'll still catch the same bug should the world get ill. 

Performance%20spx%20msworld

As we've discussed over the past several weeks in various notes (see Here & Here), the conditions we are most concerned with in the broader macro context is the persistence of disinflationary momentums that under the right conditions could exasperate a turn in confidence in our monetary handlers mettle to fight underlying deflation. We feel these concerns are evident in the inflation data in the face of considerable monetary stimulus and our focus on assets that not-so-long-ago were the darlings of the cycle - such as the precious metals complex and Apple.   

We also continue to focus on the silver:gold ratio, because historically its contraction has marketed the end of a reflationary drive in equities. The ratio can be used either as a proxy for risk appetites, whereas, the higher beta asset of silver is contrasted with gold; or as a leading indicator of economic conditions, considering silver's industrial demand versus golds perception as a safe-haven in certain market conditions.  

Below is a longer-term chart of the SPX and MSWorld indexes contrasted with a smoothed silver:gold ratio as expressed by its 50 week SMA. In the previous two equity market tops, the silver:gold ratio peaked and turned down before the credit and equity markets got the memo that risk management has left the building.

Spx%20msworld

The two charts below paint somewhat similar momentum profiles in which both cycles had large indiscriminate bids in risk appetites (as expressed by the parabolic nature of the silver:gold ratio), sandwiched between two smaller financial crises - before the broader cycle turned down.
1997 2000

2010 2013


Following up on the silver:gold/SPX performance spread, the construct exhibited the widest inversion since the start of the secular bear market in equities in March 2000. Considering our expectations that weakness in silver will persist (see 
Here), we see no reason in joining the party and chasing the equity markets on the long side here.  

Silver Gold 

Back in September, immediately following the commencement of QE3 - I wrote a note that addressed some of my concerns pertaining to what I perceived to be a double edge sword with the great commodity unwind (see Here):    

"I like to remind myself that it's much easier to rekindle economic growth across the globe, when all that is required is a large shovel, boat and a frothy marketplace. 

Although commodity inflation has provided the US consumer a painful transition in the pocketbook over the past decade, we likely do not fully appreciate how beneficial that same knife has smoothed the impact of our own financial stumbles - in a world more than ever financially dependent upon the health of the majority." 

Dow%20jones%20industrial%20average


In light of the continued downturn in the commodity sector and the slowing growth evident throughout both the emergent and developed world, I find myself considering aspects of our 
Constructive Interference Theory - through the prism of what couldhappen if both the commodity and equity market cycles turned down together against the backdrop of a declining to troughing interest rate environment. It would be the backside of the global constructive interference wave that began over 40 years ago. As evident from the long-term chart which depicts these three asset cycles - it would be new territory. With that said, and with the perspective of 200 years of market history - the Everest slope of a declining interest rate environment over the past 30 years which helped imbibe the greatest equity market returns - were never in the same league. In many ways - ignorance until proven guilty has been blissful capital management in the equity markets. Certainly easier said than done, considering the range and trauma the equity markets have traveled over the past 13 years. But within the broader historical context - well within reason.  

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STOCKS FALL AFTER CYPRUS EUPHORIA EVAPORATES: Here's What You Need To Know (SPY, DIA)

Cyprus 13

Cyprus continued to dominate headlines.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 14,447.75, -64.28, -0.44%
S&P 500: 1,551.69, -5.20, -0.33%
NASDAQ: 3,235.30, -9.70, -0.30%

And now the top stories:

  • Markets were rallying this morning after the EU and Cyprus agreed on a deal Sunday night to bailout the island nation's banking system. Under the new bailout agreement Cyprus' two largest banks will take haircuts, but insured depositors with less than €100,000 in their accounts won't be impacted. Under EU law, deposits of above €100,000 are not insured. 
  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for March jumped to 7.4, from 2.2 in February. This beat expectations for a reading of 3.2. The gains were led by the shipments sub-index.
  • But stocks tumbled after Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem told Reuters and FT the Cyprus bailout deal could considered a template for bank restructurings elsewhere in the euro area. The S&P 500 which had been flirting with record highs again but it failed to close above its record high of 1565.15.
  • Just hours later however the Eurogroup issued a statement backing down from Dijsselbloem's earlier statement. "Cyprus is a specific case with exceptional challenges which required the bail-in measures we have agreed upon yesterday. Macro-economic adjustment programmes are tailor-made to the situation of the country concerned and no models or templates are used."
  • Economists are saying that despite last night's deal, Cyprus has effectively left the euro. This is because a euro in Cyprus would be worth less than a euro in Germany. Think tank Open Europe said: "Ultimately, money is no longer fungible between Cyprus and the rest of the Eurozone and, at this point in time, it’s hard to argue that a euro in Cyprus is worth the same as a euro elsewhere. The real problem though may not be imposing the controls but removing them – Iceland still has capital controls in place, five years after it installed them (despite having the advantage of a devalued currency)."
  • Don't Miss: The 12 Most Controversial Facts In Mathematics >

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The US Is Closed, Europe Didn't Do Much

Mosley Brian

UPDATE (11:30 AM ET):
Markets basically closed flat in Europe.

England's FTSE 100 slid 0.1 percent.

France's CAC 40 climbed 0.1 percent.

Germany's DAX gained 0.4 percent.

Spain's IBEX 35 fell 0.5 percent.

Italy's FTSE MIB also fell 0.5 percent.

ORIGINAL (4:13 AM ET):
Markets are down across Europe early in the trading session.

England's FTSE 100 is down 0.2 percent.

France's CAC 40 is down 0.2 percent.

Germany's DAX is up 0.1 percent.

Spain's IBEX 35 is down 0.7 percent.

Italy's FTSE MIB is down 0.3 percent.

Overall, it's a quiet day in Europe.  However, Italy's elections are quickly approaching, and things should heat up as we get a better sense of what the results will look like.

Elsewhere, U.S. futures are flat.

Japan surged 2.1 percent, as the yen slid.

China's Shanghai Composite traded for the first time in a week, but they closed down 0.4 percent.  Lunar New Year holiday sales reportedly came in a bit light.

SEE ALSO: 18 Companies That Are Probably Freaking Out About Those Leaked Wal-Mart Emails >

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